Center for Tax and Budget Policy

U.S. Treasury & Credit Market Dashboard

Tracking federal debt structure, refinancing pressure, Treasury yields, and corporate credit conditions.

Market conditions

Rates and credit

Current status

10Y Treasury BBB spread
10-Year Treasury
10-Year Real YieldInflation-protected Treasury yield
Investment Grade OASBroad corporate credit
BBB OAS
High Yield OASRiskier corporate credit
Corporate credit spreads
ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads
Double-tightening monitor
5-observation changes
Normal One or both measures are flat or falling
Watch Rates and spreads are both rising
Stress Both exceed the +10 bp threshold

Positive values on both lines mean Treasury yields and BBB credit spreads are rising together.

Debt structure

The Treasury maturity wall

Marketable Treasury debt
Weighted-average maturityFace-value weighted
Estimated modified durationNominal Bills, Notes and Bonds
Marketable Treasury debt by maturity year
Stacked by security class
Marketable debt composition
Share of outstanding marketable debt
Refinancing pressure

What happens as existing debt matures?

Debt maturing within 3 years
Debt maturing within 2 years
Estimated annual interest reset through 2028At current replacement yields
Chart range
Interest-rate scenario
Existing coupon vs. replacement yield
Average rate on maturing debt compared with the refinancing scenario
Estimated annual interest-cost reset
Scenario using current replacement yields

Refinancing detail
Year Debt maturing Existing coupon Replacement yield Rate reset Annual interest change
Sources and notes

Data methodology

Primary sources: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data; U.S. Treasury daily yield curves; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); ICE BofA corporate option-adjusted spread series via FRED.

Market indicators update daily when source observations are available. Treasury debt structure updates monthly with the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt.

The refinancing-cost analysis is a scenario estimate based on current Treasury yields and should not be interpreted as an official Treasury forecast.

Rates and credit

The 10-year Treasury and 10-year real yield capture nominal and inflation-adjusted long-term interest rates. Corporate OAS measures the additional yield investors demand over the Treasury curve after adjusting for embedded options.

When Treasury yields and credit spreads rise together, financing conditions tighten through both the risk-free rate and the credit-risk premium.

What is a credit spread?

A credit spread is the extra yield investors demand to hold a corporate bond instead of a comparable U.S. Treasury security.

Corporate bond yield = Treasury yield + credit spread

For example, if a corporate bond yields 6.0% and a comparable Treasury yields 5.0%, the credit spread is approximately 1.0 percentage point, or 100 basis points.

Why does it matter?

When credit spreads widen, investors are demanding more compensation to lend to companies. That can reflect greater concern about default risk, weaker economic conditions, reduced risk appetite, or tighter financial markets.

Narrower spreads generally indicate easier credit conditions. Wider spreads indicate tighter credit conditions.

Why track spreads with Treasury yields?

Corporate borrowing costs can rise for two different reasons: Treasury yields can increase, or credit spreads can widen.

When both happen at the same time, companies are hit from both directions. That is why this dashboard tracks Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads together.

What is OAS?

This dashboard uses option-adjusted spread (OAS). OAS adjusts for embedded bond options, making spreads more comparable across securities.

Debt structure

The maturity wall uses Treasury security-level data from the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt and groups outstanding principal by maturity year and security class.

Weighted-average maturity is face-value weighted. The duration measure is an estimate for nominal Bills, Notes and Bonds; TIPS and FRNs are excluded from the aggregate duration estimate.

How is refinancing cost estimated?

The dashboard compares the average coupon on Treasury securities maturing in each year with an estimated replacement yield from the current Treasury curve.

Estimated annual interest reset = debt maturing × (replacement yield − existing coupon)

The Current rates scenario uses the latest Treasury curve. The +100 bp and −100 bp scenarios shift replacement yields up or down by one percentage point to illustrate sensitivity to future rates.

This is a scenario analysis, not an official Treasury forecast. Actual interest costs will depend on future rates, issuance choices, maturity composition, buybacks, and the mix of bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, and FRNs.